2024 Election Fears Fail to Drive Increase in Gun Sales

As election day lastly arrives, gun gross sales within the U.S. haven’t skilled the same old surge that has turn out to be widespread with presidential elections over the previous 20 years. The truth is, October 2024 really noticed a slight decline in FBI background checks on gun-related transactions with numbers dropping by 5 p.c from the identical interval final yr. This development reverses an upward motion seen earlier within the yr and marks a departure from historic election-year patterns, in keeping with The Reload’s Stephen Gutowski. Usually, election years set off a spike in gun purchases because of considerations over potential restrictions, however that’s not the case this time.

Whereas the entire variety of sales-related checks by way of the FBI’s Nationwide On the spot Legal Background Test System (NICS) nonetheless exceeded 1,000,000 in October—making it the 63rd consecutive month to hit that threshold—the quantity stays notably decrease than anticipated for a high-stakes election yr. 

“We haven’t seen what we sometimes see in an election yr,” stated Mark Oliva, spokesperson for the Nationwide Taking pictures Sports activities Basis (NSSF), in an interview with HuffPost. Oliva attributed this deviation to a “regular state” in background checks fairly than a spike, and he highlighted that People proceed to display their dedication to Second Modification rights, even when they aren’t flooding gun shops.

Analysts counsel that shifts in political realities could clarify the development. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has softened her stance on gun reform, even noting that she owns a pistol for private safety. Whereas most staunch 2A supporters acknowledge that is most probably mere political posturing to attraction to a broader, uninformed voters, the ranks of gun homeowners have swelled in recent times with quite a lot of liberal and reasonable gun homeowners within the combine. These voters are prone to not be swayed by fears of a Harris presidency as extra conventional, right-leaning gun homeowners could be. Given this tempered place, in addition to the improbability of main gun reform laws passing in a Republican-controlled Senate (a extremely probably final result of this election), some voters could really feel much less urgency to buy firearms preemptively.

Firearms gross sales, whereas nonetheless regular and robust, have softened since they hit vital mass following fears of elevated social upheaval in 2020. It was then that the mixed occasions of the pandemic, the riots following the demise of George Floyd, calls to defund police departments and progressive leaders permitting lawlessness to go unpunished in quite a lot of Democrat-run cities that many People acknowledged the necessity to personal a firearm for cover of themselves and their households.

The NSSF pointed to the NICS information, which they regulate by eradicating background checks tied to hid carry permits, as an in depth indicator of gross sales. Nevertheless, the numbers mirror broader dynamics, together with the lingering results of the pandemic gun increase, which, as already famous, introduced new demographics into the firearm neighborhood. 

“Legislation-abiding People – by the tens of thousands and thousands – are fairly actually voting with their wallets and investing of their rights,” Oliva instructed The Reload in an announcement, indicating that whereas the frenzy could have slowed, enthusiasm for gun possession stays robust throughout the nation.

Gun gross sales and ammunition gross sales skyrocketed following the primary election of Barack Obama in 2008 out of fears he would push for harsher gun management measures. These fears went largely unrealized as Obama targeted on different points comparable to healthcare, but it surely served to supply a worthwhile bump and backlog in manufacturing for a lot of firearms-related companies. And whereas there was marked improve in gun gross sales main as much as this election, if Harris does win the election, it is going to be attention-grabbing to see what impact, if any, it has on gun gross sales following the election. A lot of which will rely on who wins within the Senate.