Gun Sales Continue Decline in May

The variety of FBI background checks related to gun gross sales fell once more final month, in accordance with a brand new trade report.

Gun sales-related background checks declined 1.6 % year-over-year in Could. That’s the topline conclusion of the Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis’s (NSSF) newest evaluation. The NSSF discovered that the variety of Nationwide Immediate Legal Background Examine System (NICS) checks fell from 1.089 million in Could 2024 to 1.071 million in Could 2025, making this Could the worst-performing Could for the gun trade since 2019.

The decline comes because the gun market has been in an total downward pattern within the gun market all through 2025, as gross sales proceed to say no to pre-pandemic ranges. The market noticed year-over-year declines in checks throughout February, March, and April. February was the second-worst-performing February within the final 13 years, with gross sales declining by 9 %. 2025’s first quarter was the worst of the previous 5 years as checks fell close to pre-pandemic ranges. 

The low numbers come within the wake of Donald Trump’s election, which has possible decreased trade demand by tamping down issues about new gun restrictions. They could additionally replicate a seamless shift basically client sentiment, as latest worth will increase from the president’s tariffs have affected client spending throughout the financial system.

In keeping with a client pulse report from the accounting agency KPMG, 79% of U.S. shoppers anticipate tariffs to extend costs within the months forward. 50% mentioned they plan to scale back their purchases consequently.

Gun shares had combined efficiency during the last month. Smith & Wesson (SWBI) inventory was up about 5 % in comparison with Could. Nevertheless, Out of doors Holding Firm (POWW), which owns Ammo Inc. and GunBroker.com, noticed its inventory fall 30 % after reporting a drop of $6.82 million in revenues for Q3 2024 in comparison with the earlier yr.

Shares didn’t react considerably to Monday’s information that the Supreme Court docket determined to not hear challenges to an AR-15 ban and journal ban.

The “One Massive Stunning Invoice Act,” which handed the Home final week, could enhance gross sales for some within the gun trade if the present language is ready to change into legislation. The invoice consists of provisions to decrease the tax on silencers, which suppress the sound of gun photographs, from $200 to $0 and take away them from the Nationwide Firearms Act’s (NFA) intense restrictions.

The availability to take away silencers from the NFA altogether could not make it by way of the reconciliation course of within the Senate due to the strict guidelines that govern what qualifies as a price range provision. Home Republicans and gun-rights teams had a fierce disagreement over whether or not delisting would survive the reconciliation course of, although they had been in better settlement that the tax minimize would make it by way of. If Congress passes both of those provisions, it can possible enhance the demand for silencer purchases by making them extra reasonably priced and simpler to acquire. Trump has urged the Senate to get the invoice handed by July 4th.

No matter occurs with the price range invoice, NSSF argued Could’s numbers, whereas down barely, nonetheless represented important demand for weapons from American shoppers.

“Background checks for retail sale of a firearm proceed to stay over 1 million every month, exhibiting that the appropriate to maintain and bear arms is of essential significance to Individuals throughout this nation,” Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, mentioned in an announcement. “Regardless of financial uncertainty, these law-abiding residents are investing of their private security and safety – even in states the place elected officers are pulling out all stops to restrict the power to legally buy a firearm.”

There is no such thing as a precise metric measuring gun gross sales in the USA. Nevertheless, the FBI does publish information from the Nationwide Immediate Legal Background Examine System (NICS) each month. The stories function one of the dependable gauges of gun gross sales since federal legislation requires licensed sellers to conduct NICS checks when promoting to clients. These gross sales make up a bulk of the gun transactions in America.

Nonetheless, the (NICS) numbers aren’t a one-to-one report on gun gross sales in the USA. That’s as a result of the FBI makes use of NICS checks for functions apart from gun gross sales, reminiscent of issuing hid carry permits. Some states even order NICS checks on all of their hid carry allow holders every month, exhibiting that the uncooked variety of checks can’t be an infallible indicator of gun gross sales.

The NSSF filters by way of these non-sale-related checks, as recognized within the FBI stories, to determine a extra correct estimate of checks instantly associated to gun gross sales.