Analysis: Politics Prove Potent Propellant for Gun Sales Once Again [Member Exclusive]

Background checks on gun purchases had been down once more final month, besides within the one state the place the drive driving folks to their native seller was apparent: the 2025 election.

Whereas the variety of gun-sales-related checks the FBI ran via the Nationwide On the spot Prison Background Test System (NICS) in November was down seven % in comparison with final 12 months, Virginia’s share of these gross sales shot up. The state, which is the Twelfth-largest within the nation, jumped into the highest 5 in total gross sales checks and checks for lengthy gun gross sales. The spike got here instantly after Democrats received a decisive victory in November’s off-year election.

Virginia hadn’t been within the high 5 for gun gross sales checks all 12 months, however demand surged in the identical month Democrats captured full management of the state authorities. That’s a transparent signal that the specter of new gun restrictions, which Democrats have pursued in useless throughout the previous few years, pushed Virginians to go on a shopping for spree.

“November’s adjusted NICS background verify figures are following the traits we’ve seen all 12 months lengthy,” Mark Oliva, a spokesman for the Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis, the business group that carried out the NICS evaluation, mentioned in an announcement. “Notably fascinating is that background checks in Virginia broke into the High 5, which might be simply attributed to considerations that law-abiding gun house owners there have with their potential to buy the firearm of their alternative earlier than an incoming legislature and governor strip that alternative away.”

Virginia’s spike is similar to the one Colorado skilled again in Could. Within the aftermath of the state legislature adopting a permit-to-possess legislation for AR-15s and comparable firearms, the state jumped into the highest 5 for sales-related NICS checks. That surge was much more outstanding since Colorado is barely the twenty first most populous state.

However the takeaway is identical in each states: Worry of recent restrictions nonetheless drives gun gross sales.

People will nonetheless exit and purchase weapons in the event that they assume there’s a powerful chance they received’t find a way to take action within the close to future. That clearly isn’t the one motivatior and even the highest one since People persistently inform pollsters self-defense is the primary purpose they purchase weapons. However it’s the motivator that tends to drive sharp will increase in gross sales.

However these gross sales spikes are unlikely to supply a lot consolation to the gun business. Whereas politics has pushed surges for brief durations in a couple of states over the previous few years, it hasn’t pushed a sustained nationwide uptick in half a decade. With low shopper confidence, rising price of residing, and little perceived menace of recent nationwide gun bans underneath Donald Trump and a Republican Congress, there’s not a lot purpose to count on the general downward development in gross sales to alter anytime quickly.

Moreover, the truth that gun house owners solely appear to reply to the specter of new restrictions by shopping for within the aftermath of the election somewhat than exhibiting as much as vote for pro-gun candidates ought to bother gun-rights activists. Both that or the motivation of recent bans isn’t sufficient to beat different political considerations for sufficient voters to make a noticeable distinction. In any case, the selection on gun coverage in Virginia was clear and stark, however the election was a blowout at each the gubernatorial and Home ranges.

Regardless of the final purpose, the impact stays. Concern over new bans remains to be driving folks to the gun retailer in noticeable numbers in 2025, however the identical can’t be mentioned for the voting sales space.

The 2026 midterms are the subsequent huge take a look at for the salience of gun politics. Will the distinction between the events on gun coverage drive gun house owners to the polls? If not, will a superb day for Democrats drive them to the shops?