Analysis: What to Watch for on Guns in 2026 [Member Exclusive]

We’ve arrived in a brand new 12 months.

2025 had main repercussions for gun coverage. What’s going to 2026 carry?

Coming off a 12 months that noticed the presidency change palms between administrations with wildly divergent views on gun coverage, substantive adjustments to a federal gun legislation, and a gun coverage poll initiative, it’ll take lots for this 12 months to change the gun coverage enjoying subject much more. Nevertheless, it’s lining as much as appear like that may be the case. Listed below are the important thing tales we’ll be protecting a detailed watch on for the following 12 months.

Gun Legislation

Most likely the most important story with direct implications for gun coverage that we all know is coming this 12 months will occur on the Supreme Courtroom of the USA (SCOTUS). The Courtroom is about to listen to oral arguments in two completely different Second Modification circumstances. For the reason that Excessive Courtroom’s Second Modification jurisprudence remains to be in its infancy, meaning it’ll determine a few quarter of all its Second Modification circumstances this 12 months alone–with the potential so as to add extra.

The Courtroom is contemplating a problem to the federal drug consumer in possession prohibition and Hawaii’s “vampire rule.” No matter it decides, in both case, might have repercussions past these particular points. So much will depend upon how the Courtroom decides the circumstances, whether or not it makes any modifications to the take a look at it established in 2022’s New York State Rifle and Pistol Affiliation v. Bruen or whether or not it solutions any variety of lingering questions on how finest to use that take a look at.

What the Courtroom decides in these circumstances will trickle all the way down to the decrease courts and have an effect on different main Second Modification disputes we’ll be protecting a detailed eye on. Most notably, the struggle over prohibited individuals and the de facto lifetime ban on firearms possession they at present face. A number of non-violent felons, unlawful immigrants, and others prohibited by federal legislation from possessing weapons have had success difficult the ban up to now, however few have received on the circuit stage, and none have but made it to the Supreme Courtroom. Plus, the Division of Justice (DOJ) is poised to implement its new rights-restoration course of, which might assist many of those plaintiffs out and even undermine their circumstances, relying on the way it performs.

Then there’s the “assault weapons” ban challenges. The Excessive Courtroom declined to listen to the problem to Maryland’s ban final 12 months, however Justice Bret Kavanaugh, who seems to have the leverage to make it achieve this, stated The Courtroom will take a problem up within the subsequent sitting or two. There are a number of prime candidates for SCOTUS evaluate at present matriculating via the decrease courts, together with DOJ’s problem to Washington, DC’s ban.

In fact, one other main growth we’re expecting may produce a good higher candidate quickly. That’s the Third Circuit’s potential to be a circuit cut up generator. With a model new Republican-appointed majority, and a brand new pension for taking Second Modification questions en banc, it seems that court docket may be shifting towards placing down plenty of main gun-control insurance policies–together with an AR-15 ban.

We don’t but understand how the Third Circuit will rule in its Second Modification circumstances, but it surely has the potential to interrupt gun-rights activists out of a widely known sample. For years, they’ve been hard-pressed to safe high-level authorized wins towards sure insurance policies due to how circuit courts are populated. Solely essentially the most liberal states have essentially the most restrictive gun legal guidelines, and since Senators have a say in who’s appointed to the federal judgeships that oversee these states, additionally they are typically reviewed by essentially the most liberal circuits. That has tended to end in courts upholding these legal guidelines with no circuit cut up growing to incentivize the Supreme Courtroom to get entangled.

Then there’s the Nationwide Firearms Act (NFA). Along with watching how precisely the DOJ’s determination to cost now-former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro with possession of an unregistered machinegun performs out, we’ll be monitoring the 2 main gun-rights group coalitions difficult the NFA’s constitutionality as a tax legislation now that it doesn’t gather income on most of its regulated objects.

We’ll even be watching how the DOJ proceeds in that case as a part of the bigger story of the DOJ’s dichotomy on gun legislation. It has defended most federal gun laws, as within the NFA circumstances, whereas additionally difficult a number of state-level restrictions, as within the DC case. Will that proceed within the new 12 months? Will the division develop or shrink? How will gun-rights activists, who’ve praised and criticized its strikes, react?

Gun Politics

That query could also be related for the most important political story of the 12 months: the 2026 midterm elections.

How will the administration’s dealing with of gun coverage influence turnout throughout the midterms? Has it performed sufficient to energise gun house owners, a historically extremely lively voting bloc? Are weapons going to be a top-of-mind subject within the election?

Democrats are main on the generic poll in most polling, suggesting they’re seemingly retake a minimum of the Home. Will Democrats change their method to gun coverage questions in any respect, as some distinguished members like Senator Chris Murphy (D., Conn.) have prompt they need to? Or will gun politics keep locked the place they’re?

How will gun-rights teams deploy their assets? Will they’ve something of substance to deploy? With the political arm of the Nationwide Rifle Affiliation, which has historically been the one main participant within the sport for gun-rights advocates, apparently a minimum of momentarily depleted, the gun-control teams–particularly Everytown–massively outspent them in 2025. Will 2026 see extra of the identical?

How will Donald Trump react if Democrats retake one or each homes of Congress? He has been rhetorically very pro-gun all through his time as a politician. Nevertheless, he has additionally been keen to contemplate, advocate for, and even implement new gun restrictions at factors–particularly after main mass shootings.

Trump hasn’t straight mentioned gun coverage a lot since returning to the presidency. Mercifully, there haven’t been many incidents of high-profile mass shootings since then. However there’s nonetheless an underrated probability he might return to pushing for gun restrictions, particularly if Democrats retake a part of Congress. Although, Trump and the Democrats are much more unlikely to efficiently work collectively on something, not to mention main gun laws, than they have been the primary time round.

He’ll even be going through stress not simply from the left to limit weapons, however now components of the suitable, too. There have been calls from some MAGA personalities to strip all trans folks of their gun rights, and the DOJ put out a trial balloon about doing simply that in mid-2025 earlier than unified opposition from gun-rights teams rapidly shot it down.

Gun Trade

Then there’s the state of the gun {industry}.

Gross sales are nonetheless receding from 2020’s document ranges, even falling under pre-pandemic ranges in some months. The nationwide political surroundings doesn’t appear to be driving folks to gun shops, and that appears unlikely to vary even when the probability of latest restrictions has momentarily surged demand in locations like Colorado and Virginia.

How will the market develop in 2026? How a lot will the tax lower for suppressors and short-barreled rifles drive demand? Will the midterm elections improve gross sales? If gross sales don’t improve, and even proceed to slip, how will the {industry} climate the decrease demand stage?

Gun-control advocates have develop into extra aggressive in pursuing gun corporations in court docket. The {industry} received a big victory on the Supreme Courtroom in Mexico v. Smith and Wesson. Nevertheless, that hasn’t stopped civil legal responsibility lawsuits towards corporations like Glock and Ruger. How will these sorts of fits play out in 2026?

How will the regulatory surroundings change? The Trump Administration has reversed most, if not all, of the executive-branch actions taken by the Biden Administration. It has even initiated some regulatory loosening of its personal. How a lot additional will the administration go in pursuing adjustments to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF)? Will it proceed to attempt to merge the company into the DOJ writ giant or mix it with the Drug Enforcement Company, though gun-rights and gun-industry officers oppose that? Will it pursue new guidelines to proceed loosening gun laws?

How will Robert Cekada’s nomination as everlasting ATF Director go? Will he garner any bipartisan assist? Will he even get a devoted listening to, or will his nomination be thought-about in one of many newer-style group hearings? Will he face any Republican opposition, as Trump’s final ATF nominee did?

As you’ll be able to see, there are various issues we already know shall be main tales in 2026. I clearly wasn’t in a position to contact on each one in every of even the tales we are able to already see growing, and there are prone to be many extra we are able to’t see coming. So, this 12 months is certain to be busy.

We’ll be right here overlaying all of it for you in a sober, critical means that focuses on onerous information and evaluation–as at all times.