On the 2024 Garmin King of Coal Canyon PRS Professional Collection match, one thing distinctive occurred: muzzle velocities had been recorded on Stage 1 for each single shooter utilizing a Garmin Xero C1 Professional Chronograph. So far as I do know, that is the one time in PRS historical past that velocities had been captured for all the subject throughout a match. That gave us an unimaginable dataset to dig into.
Veteran match administrators Derek Love and Michael Beemer collected the info and urged somebody analyze it to see if decrease SDs correlated with higher efficiency. Since I shot within the match myself (and beloved it), I jumped on the probability.
Like every information collected in the true world, there have been some surprises!
With the 2025 King of Coal Canyon arising quickly, this felt like the right time to dive into the numbers. By the way in which, there have been nonetheless a couple of spots left on this yr’s match, which is held on the NRA Whittington Heart in Raton, NM. You’ll be able to register right here.
Fast Abstract
Listed below are a couple of of the important thing statistics over all 105 complete shooters who competed at this PRS match:
75% of shooters had a Commonplace Deviation (SD) underneath 10.4 fps
Median SD was 7.1 fps (half of shooters had been beneath and half above)
Common SD was 9.1 fps, skewed barely increased than the median due to 3 outliers with SDs over 25 fps (Be taught extra about whether or not median or common is extra helpful)
Why Did They Report SD & Not ES?
Solely the Muzzle Velocity Commonplace Deviation (SD) was recorded for every shooter. Why not the Excessive Unfold (ES) of the speed? One knowledgeable sums it up by saying, “ES isn’t a dependable statistical indicator. The very best indicator of velocity variations is the usual deviation.” One other business knowledgeable mentioned it this manner: “ES is a deceptive measure of the variation as a result of it ignores the majority of the info and focuses completely on whether or not excessive occasions occurred to happen in that pattern. We’d like a metric that finest represents the variation that we care about describing and takes all the info into consideration. That is customary deviation (SD).” If these statements are complicated, I wrote an article that explains all of it with diagrams and in a means that even the non-nerds can perceive: Excessive Unfold (ES) vs. Commonplace Deviation (SD).
SD vs Total Match End
How did SDs correlate with how shooters positioned?
At first look, there doesn’t appear to be a discernible sample within the information. Whereas most individuals who completed the match within the high 10 had an SD between 4 and eight fps, you’ll be able to see two of the highest 10 recorded SDs of 12.1 and 14.1 fps on Stage 1.
To get a clearer view, I grouped shooters into 4 teams primarily based on general match end:
1st to twenty fifth: Median SD = 6.7 fps
twenty sixth to fiftieth: Median SD = 6.3 fps
51st to seventy fifth: Median SD = 7.8 fps
76th to a hundred and fifth: Median SD = 8.4 fps
I’d’ve beloved to see a clear development the place the upper up you positioned, the decrease the SD was. However, that isn’t precisely the story the info tells – and that’s as a result of SD isn’t all that issues on this sport. The man pulling the set off remains to be an important issue! An ideal shooter with a average SD can nonetheless place properly, as proven by Morgun King ending third with a 12.1 fps SD. Morgun is a superb trigger-puller and world-class competitor.
Nevertheless, the chart clearly exhibits that opponents who completed within the high half had median SDs of 6.7 or much less, whereas these within the backside half had median SDs of seven.8 to eight.4 fps.
What Was The Worst SD Recorded?
This shocked us all, however the highest SD recorded was 69.8 fps!!! The match administrators really introduced the winner of the very best SD on the awards banquet following the match, and it turned out to be Richie Nethery, who positioned thirteenth general within the match! Richie solely hit 3 targets on Stage 1, however he averaged 7.8 factors on the opposite 19 levels. One thing clearly went incorrect together with his ammo or gear on Stage 1 that wasn’t consultant of his different levels.
Everybody else within the high 30 had SDs underneath 15 fps, so the one outlier of 69.8 is simply that – an outlier.
What Was The Finest SD Recorded?
Blake Milford had the bottom SD at 3.1 fps. There have been a number of opponents who had measured SDs beneath 4 fps. Clearly, all of those guys had some improbable ammo:
Apparently, solely 2 of these 8 shooters positioned within the high 20. So, whereas low SDs are spectacular, they’re not every part. It exhibits that whereas super-consistent ammo might help, a PRS match isn’t an ammo-loading contest. There’s much more that goes into it!
SD on Stage 1 vs Hits on Stage 1
Lastly, since all velocity information got here from Stage 1, I in contrast SDs to efficiency on that stage. Right here is the info:
Just one shooter cleaned Stage 1 (i.e., hit targets on all 10 pictures). That was Morgun King with an SD of 12.1 fps on that stage.
A number of shooters with SDs underneath 6 fps or much less solely picked up 2-5 factors on Stage 1. I personally competed on this match, and I can inform you firsthand that Stage 1 was robust! Goal acquisition was robust, and the winds had been gusty at occasions. The truth is, I’m embarrassed to confess – however Stage 1 was a practice wreck of a stage for me, regardless of my 5.7 fps SD! 😉
What Form of SD Will Trigger a Miss?
The entire velocities gathered on the match had been taken on Stage 1. The web page beneath is from the match e book, and it describes Stage 1 with images of the particular goal placement.
Stage 1 was a primary 5-target troop line starting from 710 yards to 1033 yards. (Word: The highest of the web page says 1100 yards for the final goal, however that was a misprint. The space matched what was proven on the picture, which was 1033 yards.)
To place all of this muzzle velocity variation in context, let’s discover what it could take by way of SD to overlook the 20” circle at 1,033 yards.
The objective for many long-range opponents is for his or her muzzle velocity SD to be within the single digits (i.e., lower than 10 fps). Nevertheless, there are a variety of uncertainties that play into whether or not a single shot connects with its supposed goal. So it isn’t so simple as saying in case your SD was 12 fps or much less, you’d hit, and if it was greater than that, you’d miss. With regards to uncertainties, actual evaluation will at all times converse in possibilities.
What Is WEZ Evaluation?
The workforce at Utilized Ballistics got here up with one thing referred to as WEZ Evaluation, which is a software program software to assist us take all the totally different sources of uncertainty and error in an extended shot into consideration. The WEZ software performs a Monte Carlo simulation, which is an effective method to mannequin situations which have a sure stage of uncertainty within the inputs. This can be a nice mannequin for long-range capturing as a result of inputs like muzzle velocity or excessive unfold of your group can’t be quantified with 100% certainty. Your muzzle velocity would possibly common 3000 fps, however Shot #1 could also be 3005, Shot #2 could also be 2985, and Shot #3 could also be 3010. That averages 3000 fps, however there may be nonetheless shot-to-shot variation. Monte Carlo simulations primarily play out lots of or 1000’s of potential outcomes primarily based in your inputs. The variables in every situation are randomly populated throughout the ranges you set and in keeping with a chance distribution. For instance, in case you gave some enter that mentioned your rifle was able to holding a 0.5 MOA excessive unfold, then it would play out one situation the place it drilled the precise level of goal, one other the place it hit 0.2 MOA excessive, one other the place it hit 0.25 MOA low, one other that hit 0.12 MOA to the precise, and so forth. These pictures would all nonetheless be inside a 0.5 MOA group. It does that very same factor for every of the variables in each situation (muzzle velocity, wind name, vary estimation, and so forth.), then it performs out every situation, and plots the place the shot would land. After it runs 1,000 totally different situations, it appears to be like on the outcomes of all of these and calculates your chance of hitting the goal primarily based on the variables you entered.
So, I plugged all the information into the WEZ evaluation on the AB Quantum iPhone App for this particular situation from Stage 1, and listed below are the outcomes:
This was calculated for a 6.5 Creedmoor launching a Berger 153.5 LRHT bullet at 2,660 fps. That’s an especially frequent cartridge/bullet combo for this King of Coal Canyon PRS match, as a result of it has farther targets and the next proportion of susceptible levels than most different PRS matches. It’s additionally frequent for the wind within the canyon the place the match is held to be very tough, so a number of shooters like the upper vitality the heavier bullet offers downrange to assist them spot impacts and make corrections.
For the evaluation, I used a spread uncertainty of +/- 2 yards, which is the perfect you could possibly count on at this distance, even with the perfect military-grade rangefinders. The remainder of the WEZ inputs all matched Utilized Ballistics’ defaults for “Excessive” certainty.
So even with an SD of 20 fps, you continue to had a 70% probability of connecting with the goal – assuming that your ballistic resolution was completely trued to your precise impacts, your rifle was completely stage, and also you broke the shot completely. In the true world, I’d count on these 3 assumptions weren’t true for all the pictures damaged on Stage 1 on the match – however we’ll run with it for now.
Should you had your ammo actually dialed in and it was producing a 5 fps SD, then you could possibly count on an 87% hit chance on that farthest goal on Stage 1. Whereas 70% to 87% could not sound like so much, that represents a 24% enchancment! The Math = (87-70) / 70 = 24.3
A 24% enchancment in hit chance over a match with round 200 pictures fired over two days can completely swing the result.
The AB Quantum app offers a couple of methods to visualise the WEZ evaluation outcomes. The charts beneath present a breakdown of the place totally different sources of error are coming from on this shot at 1033 yards by way of vertical dispersion.
Remember the fact that the vertical uncertainty from the vary, drag, rifle, and different elements is an identical in each situations above. Solely the uncertainty associated to the “MV” column is altering between the 2 situations.
On the left, the vertical uncertainty associated to MV is lower than 0.05 mils, which is similar to the uncertainty from these different main elements:
Vary being +/- 2 yards from the precise distance
Drag of your bullet altering barely from one bullet to a different (1% is superb consistency, and solely the perfect match-grade bullets obtain that)
Rifle’s mechanical precision (0.15 mrad is roughly 0.5 MOA – and any rifle that may shoot a 10-shot group and be within 0.5 MOA is an elite competitors rifle)
However on the precise, there may be nearly 0.13 mils of uncertainty coming from the muzzle velocity alone, which towers above these different elements. Whereas 0.13 mils of uncertainty could not sound like so much, all of these sources of error can stack, which is why your hit chance is nearly 10% much less when you’ve an SD of 15 fps somewhat than 5 fps.
I shared a draft of this text with Bryan Litz and the Utilized Ballistics workforce, and I wish to spotlight one in every of Bryan’s considerate feedback that provides necessary context to the WEZ evaluation:
“Any time I speak about WEZ, I’m positive to level out that the hit % relies on the inputs, which normally characterize 1st shot uncertainties. After you hearth and observe the primary shot and apply the suggestions, you’re successfully nulling out all of the variables aside from MV SD, BC SD, and group measurement. In different phrases, any error that was systemic, the shooter nulls utilizing suggestions from noticed impacts. Should you’re not seeing impacts and simply capturing constantly with the identical POA, that’s the place you’d see the decrease hit chance on repetitive pictures.” – Bryan Litz
That’s an necessary level. WEZ assumes you’re not altering uncertainty between pictures, however in a match, good shooters are watching impacts, studying, and making corrections. I’ll admit there have been levels the place I used to be too distracted to do this properly, and we’ve all had moments the place we didn’t spot a shot or failed to regulate.
Nonetheless, even while you’re correcting, you’ll be able to’t eradicate all uncertainty. Random variations in velocity, drag, and gusty wind can nonetheless trigger misses. So whereas WEZ would possibly overstate some danger on follow-up pictures, the lesson stands – decrease SD provides you extra margin for error and extra confidence in your corrections.
What Does That Imply In Sensible Phrases?
Decrease SDs assist cut back vertical uncertainty. In case your SD is 5 fps and also you hit the underside of a goal, you’ll be able to confidently alter up 0.1 mils. But when your SD is 15 fps, that low hit would possibly simply be a fluke because of shot-to-shot velocity variance. Adjusting up might trigger the subsequent shot to overlook excessive.
Look again on the shot simulation above. For the 15 fps situation, there are pictures that missed the goal excessive and low, though the simulation assumes that our dope was good and the shot was damaged completely. Meaning with increased SDs, you want to be extra cautious along with your corrections, as a result of it’s laborious to know precisely the place your cone of accuracy or the middle of a shot group can be on the plate. Not with the ability to right pictures to the middle of the plate might trigger you to drop a few factors over a 200-shot professional match.
Nearly all of us need lower than 10 fps SD over 10-shot strings, and I’d personally really feel so much higher about it if my ammo SD is underneath 8 fps. I do assume there’s a level of diminishing returns, so chasing 3 or 4 fps SDs could have little or no sensible worth, as a result of it’s simply misplaced within the noise of all the different elements that would trigger a miss throughout a contest within the subject.
About The Match
Big because of Derek Love and Michael Beemer for working the King of Coal Canyon. It’s the most effective PRS matches on the market, held on the stunning NRA Whittington Heart in Raton, NM – the biggest vary on the planet! Should you love susceptible long-range capturing, this one must be in your calendar.
The 2025 King of Coal Canyon Match is arising on Might thirty first and had a couple of spots left on the time I revealed this. You’ll be able to be taught extra right here: Be taught Extra or Register for 2025 King of Coal Canyon
Uncooked Information
Should you’d love to do your personal evaluation on this information, Michael Beemer revealed all of it right here:
Be taught Extra
Should you favored this text, I do know you’ll love my “How A lot Does It Matter?” collection, which takes a data-driven take a look at what impression totally different parts have on getting hits at lengthy vary utilizing WEZ Evaluation.
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