Gun Sales Push Past 1 Million in August, Still Down Nearly 10 Percent Year Over Year

The gun market recaptured a key marker in August, however couldn’t reverse a prevailing downward slide.

The FBI’s Nationwide Prompt Felony Background Test System (NICS) ran 1,091,342 sales-related checks final month, in response to a brand new Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis (NSSF) report launched on Wednesday. That is a rise over July, which was the primary to fall beneath the million mark in six years.

“NSSF is inspired to see the adjusted NICS background checks high 1 million within the month August as soon as once more,” Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, stated in an announcement. “We all know there’s a sturdy and continued curiosity in lawful firearm possession and these figures bear out the reality that Second Modification rights are valued.”

Nevertheless, the variety of NICS checks additionally decreased by 9.9 % year-over-year.

Whereas gun-related background checks rebounded between July and August, that was possible a results of a seasonal uptick–given gun gross sales historically gradual throughout the summer time–somewhat than a market restoration. In any case, July 2025’s checks solely fell 8.1 % in comparison with the earlier July, and August’s checks have been down 9.9 % year-over-year.

The continued downturn reveals no indicators of slowing regardless of falling again beneath pre-pandemic ranges and poses a major threat for the gun trade. Financial uncertainty, such because the softening jobs market, and perceptions that Republican management of the federal authorities means new management is unlikely, have mixed to blunt demand for weapons. Whereas some states, similar to Colorado, have skilled a surge in sales-related checks following new gun restrictions, that hasn’t pushed sufficient demand to cease the nationwide decline.

The slide has been important, particularly within the AR-15 market.

“Through the top of the, , gross sales surge 2020 to 2021, we shipped over 30,000 lowers ourselves,” Russell Phagan, director of KE Arms, informed The Reload. “Now, we’re right down to round 750 to 1000 a yr. And going from, on the top, round 50 workers to now three.”

Actual gun gross sales metrics are unimaginable since it’s unlawful for the federal authorities to register firearms.

NICS checks don’t signify a one-to-one metric for gun gross sales for a number of causes. For one, neither federal legislation nor most states require NICS checks on used gun gross sales between non-public residents. For one more, twenty-eight states permit these with gun-carry permits (which require a NICS verify to acquire) to bypass further NICS checks throughout gross sales.

Nevertheless, most consultants consider NICS checks are the perfect gauge for gun gross sales. That’s as a result of almost all gross sales that licensed gun sellers conduct should undergo a verify. And licensed sellers are the one ones who can promote new weapons to the general public.

Nonetheless, the uncooked NICS numbers put out by the FBI might be deceptive as a result of they embrace a considerable variety of non-sales checks. That’s why NSSF makes use of a proprietary formulation to regulate the numbers in an effort to single out simply the checks associated to gross sales.

“The adjusted NICS knowledge have been derived by subtracting out NICS goal code allow checks and allow rechecks utilized by states for CCW allow software checks in addition to checks on energetic CCW allow databases,” the group stated in an announcement. “NSSF began subtracting allow rechecks in February 2016.”

NSSF stated the distinction between the uncooked numbers and adjusted numbers was about 730,000 checks.

The group stated Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia noticed essentially the most gun-sales-related NICS checks in August. NSSF stated checks pushing again above 1 million are emblematic of People’ dedication to gun possession.

“These figures are greater than knowledge factors,” Oliva stated. “They signify People from all walks of life who’re, fairly actually, investing of their security, safety and freedom.”