When background checks for gun gross sales dipped beneath 1 million final July, anti-gun advocates sighed with aid. The practically six-year-long streak had come to an finish, and gun-banners have been hopeful it could usher in a brand new period of decrease gun gross sales.
Judging by the most recent March numbers, these hopes have been false.
The March Nationwide Taking pictures Sports activities Basis-adjusted Nationwide Immediate Felony Background Test System (NICS) determine of 1,412,917 is a 1.9% enhance from the 1,386,724 in March 2025. It’s also a 13% enhance over the February whole. For comparability, the unadjusted March 2026 FBI NICS determine of two,212,094 displays a ten.5% lower from the unadjusted March 2025 determine of two,470,705.
The newest month-to-month whole of over 1 million month-to-month gun gross sales in March marked the eighth consecutive month with greater than 1 million background checks, after the only month in July 2025 with fewer than 1 million.
“March’s Adjusted NICS determine of over 1.4 million checks for the sale of a firearm represents a wholesome and regular progress within the curiosity of Individuals to freely train their Second Modification rights,” Oliva stated.
Oliva stated that the curiosity in training Second Modification rights is most evident in Virginia, the place laws sits on Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s desk to unconstitutionally ban a complete class of firearms, together with many different infringements.
“Virginians are fairly actually voting with their wallets on how they view this pending ban,” he stated. “Virginia’s background checks for all firearms offered elevated by 70% over the identical month final 12 months, to 79,383 background checks, which was up from 46,659 this time final 12 months. That follows a 55 % enhance reported in February’s background verify figures.”
And, in accordance with Oliva, his group doesn’t anticipate that development to finish anytime quickly.
“We anticipate this determine to proceed to rise, as it’s anticipated Gov. Spanberger will ignore the desire of the residents of the Commonwealth to violate her personal state structure and the U.S. Structure to bar the sale of the most-popular promoting centerfire rifle in America right now—the Fashionable Sporting Rifle,” he stated.
In accordance with the NSSF, the highest 5 states for general Adjusted NICS checks in March have been Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. The highest 5 for handgun NICS checks have been Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Main the nation in lengthy gun checks have been Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and California.
Though indirectly correlated to firearms gross sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS information supply an extra view of present market circumstances. In addition to different makes use of, NICS is used to confirm transactions for the sale or switch of recent or used firearms.
Notably, 28 states have no less than one certified various allow, which, beneath the Brady Act, permits the allow holder, who has undergone a background verify, to buy a firearm from a licensed supplier and not using a separate background verify for that switch. The variety of NICS checks in these states doesn’t embrace authorized transfers made with qualifying permits, so the precise variety of gun gross sales is probably going a lot increased.
