Estimated studying time: 5 minutes
By Larry Keane
Legislation-abiding residents within the Commonwealth of Virginia are dealing with an onslaught of strict gun management proposals now that antigun politicians management the governor’s mansion and each chambers of the Meeting. A type of proposals, led by Democrat Home of Delegates Rep. Dan Helmer, would ban the manufacture, sale and possession of Fashionable Sporting Rifles (MSRs) — or the AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles which have change into ubiquitous amongst law-abiding gun house owners.
WHSV 3 Information reported on the invoice. “If handed, the proposal would prohibit the manufacture, sale, import, buy and switch of many semi-automatic rifles, pistols and shotguns that meet its newly expanded definition of ‘assault firearms.’ This definition is predicated on options corresponding to pistol grips, threaded barrels, adjustable shares and removable magazines,” the information channel reported.
Virginia’s not alone. Different antigun state legislatures are proposing bans on so-called “assault weapons” too, however as media continues to cowl these payments, are they purposefully low-balling simply how extraordinarily in style, and generally owned, they’ve change into? Easy web searches appear to indicate the reply is “sure.”
Behind The Occasions
Should you ran a easy Google search of “what number of Individuals personal AR-15s?”, the outcomes could be woefully missing. The Google AI software provides a direct reply of “roughly 16 million to 24.6 million” Individuals who personal an AR-15 or equally styled semiautomatic rifle. Google’s high-end estimate is greater than 20 p.c off from probably the most present business estimates.
The highest articles referenced and supplied as quotation are all far out-of-date. The highest article supplied, from Georgetown College, is a republish of The Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard writing about AR-15 recognition — from 2022 — additionally pegged at 24 million.
The second-highest-placed article — from Stephen Gutowski’s The Reload — can be from 2022 and places MSR possession at 24.4 million.
Subsequent is a Washington Submit article from 2023, suggesting there are solely “20 million AR-15s in circulation.”
NBC Information included the determine 24.4 million as effectively in 2020 in an article titled, “What makes the AR-15 so beloved and so reviled.”
All these publications may use a refresh on their analysis in the event that they’re going to cowl the recognition of the MSR and state laws being proposed to ban their possession, use and sale.
New Excessive Mark
NSSF lately launched its “2025 Firearm Manufacturing in the US” report that features firearm import and export information as effectively. The report consists of the latest figures gathered from business producers that’s up-to-date as of 2023 manufacturing. The report compiles probably the most present and correct info out there based mostly on information sourced from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ (ATF’s) Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Export Stories (AFMER).
So what’s the present complete quantity on MSRs? It’s a giant quantity – considerably increased than what mainstream media continues to report.
All instructed, business information reveals that 32,091,000 Fashionable Sporting Rifles (MSRs) are in circulation since 1990. Whereas MSR manufacturing slowed down barely between 2022 to 2023, coming off scorching scorching gross sales throughout COVID and the early Biden administration, the estimated complete quantity of MSRs produced since 1990 elevated by 4.5 p.c, bringing the overall to 32 million from 30.7 million.
Media shops masking firearm-related legislative proposals in Virginia, New Mexico and elsewhere want to incorporate probably the most present figures to present readers a clearer understanding that these lawful rifles are generally owned and in style to be used for a wide range of lawful causes, together with leisure goal taking pictures, looking, varmint management and residential protection.
Mark the Highest Court docket’s Phrases
When the U.S. Supreme Court docket handed down its Heller determination in 2008, the Court docket acknowledged that that complete lessons of generally owned firearms can’t be banned from authorized sale and possession by law-abiding residents. Within the 5-4 determination, the Court docket held, “Non-public residents have the precise underneath the Second Modification to own an extraordinary kind of weapon and use it for lawful, traditionally established conditions corresponding to self-defense in a house, even when there isn’t any relationship to a neighborhood militia.”
“Generally owned,” “usually possessed” and “extraordinary” are key phrases right here.
MSRs are the most well-liked promoting centerfire rifle in America and solidly extra widespread than Ford F-150s on the street right this moment (the most well-liked promoting pickup truck in America).
As Virginians hearken to Delegate Helmer and his gun management allies try to make use of scare ways to pressure by way of an AR-15 ban to be signed by Virginia’s Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, they need to additionally keep in mind the phrases of U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who in a 2024 congressional listening to described MSRs as “one of the crucial in style semiautomatic weapons in the US,” and even Supreme Court docket Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who in her 2024 Cargill dissent described AR-15-style semiautomatic rifles as “generally out there, semiautomatic rifles.”
Shelby Baird Smith, NSSF’s Chief Litigation Counsel, identified in a weblog that the Supreme Court docket unanimously affirmed this within the 2025 Smith & Wesson Manufacturers, Inc., et al. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos determination.
“What’s extra, the Supreme Court docket’s ruling likewise handed the business one other refined win in relation to challenges to {hardware} bans,” Smith wrote. “The Smith & Wesson determination reveals that each one 9 justices agree with the assertion that AR-15s are ‘broadly authorized and acquired by many extraordinary residents’ and are ‘the most well-liked rifle within the nation.’”
32 million is a giant, large quantity. Journalists reporting on gun management proposals within the states or in Washington, D.C., ought to acknowledge simply how generally owned these firearms are and that precedent demonstrates complete lessons of generally owned firearms can’t be banned. Honestly reporting to readers and audiences simply how in style they’re is vital to make sure Second Modification rights are usually not infringed by gun management activists utilizing scare ways and lies.
Larry Keane is Senior Vice President of Authorities and Public Affairs and Common Counsel for the Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis, the firearms business commerce affiliation.
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