January Gun Sales Slow Despite Silencer Upswing

Gun-sales-related background checks had been down yr over yr final month.

January 2026 noticed fewer gross sales processed by way of the Nationwide Immediate Felony Background Verify System (NICS) than in 2025, in accordance with a brand new report from a gun-industry group. Whereas the month nonetheless generated 1,198,879 sales-related NICS checks, the Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis (NSSF) reported that was down about 0.7 p.c from the earlier yr. That places January 2026 effectively under the all-time January report set in 2021 and outdoors of the highest 5.

On the similar time, NSSF reported that checks for Nationwide Firearms Act (NFA) objects–reminiscent of silencers–exploded within the first month of the yr. They climbed to 206,871, which is a 121.2 p.c enhance from January 2025.

Nonetheless, the {industry} can grasp its hat on the silencer and general NFA market, the place the tax cuts signed into legislation by President Donald Trump have clearly juiced demand.

“January’s background examine figures reinforce what many noticed at first of the month and was evident at SHOT Present 2026 in Las Vegas,” Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, mentioned in an announcement. “That is the 12 months of the Suppressor. When Congress removes regulatory burdens and taxes, law-abiding gun homeowners reply by selecting to train their rights to each preserve and bear arms.”

Moreover, January’s numbers assist the concept that politics can nonetheless drive gun gross sales. Virginia was as soon as once more within the high 5 for NICS checks for handguns and lengthy weapons, in accordance with the NSSF report, regardless of rating because the twelfth most populous state. It additionally ranked third in NFA checks.

The state had not made it into the highest 5 all of final yr. That’s, till Democrats received a sweeping victory within the gubernatorial and legislative elections with candidates who promised to impose new gun restrictions. The following month, Virginia surged into the highest 5 for sales-related NICS checks. It has now remained there as those self same Democrats have pursued a broad package deal of gun payments, together with new excise taxes and a so-called assault weapons ban.

“Significantly fascinating is that background checks in Virginia broke into the High 5, which may be simply attributed to considerations that law-abiding gun homeowners there have with their means to buy the firearm of their alternative earlier than an incoming legislature and governor strip that alternative away,” Oliva mentioned in December.

Virginia isn’t the one state that noticed the same impact. In Could, Colorado jumped into the highest 5, regardless of being simply the twenty first most populous state. That got here shortly after the state legislature adopted a permit-to-possess legislation for “assault weapons.”

As NSSF itself cautions, NICS checks don’t straight translate to gun gross sales for a number of causes.

“It ought to be famous that these statistics symbolize the variety of firearm background checks initiated by way of the NICS,” the group mentioned in its evaluation. “They don’t symbolize the variety of firearms bought or gross sales {dollars}. Primarily based on various state legal guidelines, native market situations and buy situations, a one-to-one correlation can’t be made between a firearm background examine and a firearm sale.”

Nonetheless, since the USA has no nationwide gun registry, NICS numbers are broadly thought of to be among the many most dependable gauges for gun gross sales. They’re required on almost all gross sales licensed sellers make to finish clients, and new weapons can solely be bought by way of licensed sellers. NSSF’s adjusted numbers additionally filter out NICS checks that aren’t straight associated to a gun sale, like these finished throughout many states’ hid carry allowing processes.