Newsletter: Signs of Another ‘Trump Slump’?

The final time Donald Trump was president, gun gross sales faltered.

So, this time round, that’s what many individuals anticipate to occur. After his first full month in workplace, that expectation appears to be coming true. Gun gross sales fell considerably in February, touchdown at some extent under pre-pandemic ranges.

As I clarify in a member piece, that’s one other signal the gun business is headed into unsure waters.

Talking of Donald Trump, he gave the primary huge speech of his new time period this week. You could be shocked at how a lot of his record-long monologue was devoted to gun coverage.

The Supreme Court docket additionally heard a significant gun case this week, holding oral arguments in Smith & Wesson v. Mexico that noticed one aspect come away the clear favourite. And I check out why the NRA’s upcoming election might solidify reformers’ management over the group.

Plus, Cause Journal’s J.D. Tuccille joins the podcast to offer his view on Kash Patel taking up the ATF. And we’ve a bunch of tales down within the hyperlinks, together with how one Trump appointee plans to pursue gun circumstances and Honolulu’s invisible “ghost gun” prosecutions.

Gun Gross sales Plunge 9 % in FebruaryBy Stephen Gutowski

Yr-over-year background checks on gun gross sales declined sharply within the first full month of Donald Trump’s second time period.

An business evaluation of numbers from the Nationwide Instantaneous Felony Background Examine System (NICS) discovered People purchased about 120,000 fewer weapons in February 2025 than they did in February 2024. The drop from 1,343,478 checks to 1,222,980 represents a couple of nine-point decline, in accordance with the Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis (NSSF).

That makes final month the second-worst performing February during the last 13 years, with solely 2018 seeing fewer gun-sales-related checks.

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Evaluation: The Gun Trade Enters Unsure Territory [Member Exclusive]By Stephen Gutowski

Gun gross sales are declining, and there’s purpose to assume the development might worsen.

This week, an business evaluation confirmed gun gross sales have been down 9 p.c year-over-year in February. That made it one of many worst Februarys in a decade.

It follows a 2024 the place gross sales declined to pre-pandemic ranges. If the subsequent 4 years are something just like the earlier 4 when Donald Trump was president, the slide could be beginning.

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Supreme Court docket Seems Skeptical of Mexico’s Claims Towards American GunmakersBy Jake Fogleman

The nation’s highest courtroom appeared to forged doubt on the viability of Mexico’s legal responsibility claims in opposition to the American gun business Tuesday morning.

The Supreme Court docket heard oral arguments within the case Smith & Wesson v. Mexico. The case facilities across the overseas authorities’s allegations that American gunmakers and distributors “assist and abet” cartel violence throughout the southern border by persevering with to supply firearms that will be trafficked to criminals, even when they don’t knowingly promote these weapons to the criminals. At concern is whether or not such claims are viable or in the event that they are precluded by the Safety of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), which shields the firearms business from legal responsibility for third-party conduct.

Mexico confronted robust questioning from the justices throughout the listening to. Even the liberal justices appeared suspicious that Mexico’s lawsuit might survive.

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Trump Skips Weapons in First Congressional Speech of Second Time periodBy Stephen Gutowski

President Donald Trump didn’t point out gun coverage as soon as in what turned out to be the longest deal with to a joint session of Congress in historical past.

On Tuesday, Trump gave an hour-and-45-minute speech to the Home and Senate. Whereas he lined a myriad of matters throughout the marathon session, he didn’t make even a passing point out of gun coverage.

That continues a development of Trump downplaying weapons in favor of different points throughout his marketing campaign and the early months of his second time period.

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Podcast: Cause Journal’s J.D. Tuccille on Kash Patel Main the ATF and FBIBy Stephen Gutowski

This week, we’re trying on the first-of-its-kind transfer to make the FBI Director the Appearing Director of the ATF.

To do this, we’ve bought Cause Journal’s J.D. Tuccille again on the present. He just lately wrote about what Kash Patel’s appointment may imply for the gun company.

You may hearken to the present in your favourite podcasting app or by clicking right here. Video of the episode is out there on our YouTube channel.

Plus, Contributing author Jake Fogleman and I cowl the Supreme Court docket’s newest remand of a case regarding whether or not convicted felons have any Second Modification rights. We additionally focus on main gun producer Daniel Protection’s resolution to wade into the continued efforts to reform the NRA via board elections. We then briefly contact on the Trump administration’s resolution to faucet Kash Patel as appearing ATF director earlier than wrapping up with a round-up of tales from exterior The Reload.

Audio right here. Video right here.

Evaluation: The NRA Board Election Could Ship a Recent Begin [Member Exclusive]By Stephen Gutowski

The Nationwide Rifle Affiliation (NRA) simply introduced one vital donor again into the fold. Or, not less than, its reformer faction did.

In a current video posted to gunmaker Daniel Protection’s social media accounts, founder Marty Daniel stated he believes the gun-rights group is primed for a turnaround. He stated he’d left the NRA within the wake of its half-decade-long corruption scandal, however now could be the correct time to return. He inspired clients to do the identical and vote for a slate of reformer candidates within the group’s present election.

How that reformer marketing campaign seems might decide if the NRA seizes its alternative for a recent begin.

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Exterior The Reload

U.S. legal professional vows gun crime crackdown in bid to ‘Make D.C. Secure Once more’ | Washington Publish | By Spencer S. Hsu, Keith L. Alexander, Peter Hermann and Jenny Gathright

The New American Gun Retailer: Grips, Grenade Launchers and Ramen Noodles | New York Occasions | By Thomas Gibbons-Neff

Dems demand particulars from AG Bondi on Trump’s directive to evaluate gun rules | Courthouse Information Service | By Benjamin S. Weiss

WA senate passes invoice to ban weapons in additional public locations | Seattle Occasions | By Shauna Sowersby

Proposed Maryland invoice would ban any firearm that may be made absolutely automated | CBS Information | By Christian Olaniran and Kelsey Kushner

Honolulu Hasn’t Prosecuted A Single Ghost Gun Case Since 2020 Ban | Honolulu Civil Beat | By Caitlin Thompson and Madeleine Valera

Michigan’s crimson flag legislation used to confiscate firearms on campus, from minors as younger as 6 | The Detroit Information | By Beth LeBlanc

CRPA Eyeing Lawsuit Over California County’s Outrageously Costly Carry Allow Charges | Bearing Arms | By Cam Edwards

That’s it for this week in weapons.

If you wish to hear professional evaluation of those tales and extra, be sure to seize a Reload membership to get our unique evaluation e-newsletter each Sunday!

I’ll see you all subsequent week.

Thanks,Stephen GutowskiFounderThe Reload