September Gun Sales Upswing Couldn’t Stop Third Quarter Downturn

Background checks related to gun gross sales had been up year-over-year in September, however that wasn’t sufficient to alter the latest path of the market.

Gross sales-related checks within the FBI’s Nationwide Prompt Prison Background Examine System (NICS) edged up about two p.c final month, in response to an trade evaluation. Checks additionally cracked the one-million mark in September, persevering with a brand new streak after a six-year-old one lastly resulted in July. Nevertheless, the identical Nationwide Capturing Sports activities Basis (NSSF) evaluation discovered gross sales checks had been down about 5.7 p.c year-over-year for the complete third quarter–placing it under different post-pandemic years.

September 2025 noticed 1,179,424 NICS gross sales checks, up from 1,156,223 in September 2024. The total quarter noticed 3,249,497 NICS gross sales checks. That was down from 3,432,008 the yr earlier than.

Taken collectively, the numbers point out the gun market could also be discovering its post-pandemic flooring. The gun trade tends to comply with a seasonal cycle the place gross sales rise within the fall and winter, then fall within the spring and summer time. Nevertheless it additionally follows a broader feast then famine cycle the place Individuals purchase extra weapons in response to perceived threats, whether or not towards their private safety or their skill to amass weapons sooner or later, then they have a tendency to loosen up their gun spending habits for some time because the risk passes or recedes from the general public consideration.

The chaos of 2020 offered a broad swath of Individuals with quite a lot of motivations to flood their native gun outlets and set a brand new gross sales test report, however the pullback from that unprecedented spike in demand has been equally unprecedented. The trade has skilled quite a few false flooring over the previous 5 years, with gross sales declines slowing or briefly reversing, just for demand to break down once more. September’s uptick is promising for the trade, however unlikely to reassure gun companies or buyers till the market repeats that feat over a number of months and even quarters.

Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, referred to as the month’s numbers a constructive signal and emphasised the market once more topped the important thing million-a-month metric.

“September’s adjusted NICS determine of over 1.1 million background checks for the sale of a firearm is encouraging and displays a gentle curiosity by law-abiding Individuals to train their Second Modification rights,” he stated in an announcement. “September can also be the start of many searching seasons throughout the nation and the firearm trade sometimes sees background checks for retail firearm gross sales enhance throughout these months, as hunters go afield and need to take with them the most recent in firearms to reap clear protein for his or her tables.”

Financial uncertainty, such because the softening jobs market, and perceptions that Republican management of the federal authorities means new management is unlikely, have additionally contributed to the decline in demand. Whereas the most recent NSSF report reveals some states, like Colorado, which jumped again into the highest 5 in NICS gross sales checks, have seen increased demand following new gun laws, that hasn’t been sufficient to cease the nationwide decline.

The AR-15 market has been notably hard-hit because the pandemic peak.

“Through the top of the, you realize, gross sales surge 2020 to 2021, we shipped over 30,000 lowers ourselves,” Russell Phagan, director of KE Arms, instructed The Reload lately. “Now, we’re all the way down to round 750 to 1000 a yr. And going from, on the top, round 50 workers to now three.”

Precise gun gross sales metrics are unattainable because the regulation bars the federal authorities from registering weapons. Nevertheless, NICS checks are extensively thought-about the most effective analog for gun gross sales.

That’s as a result of federal regulation requires licensed sellers to conduct NICS checks on practically all their gross sales, and requires anybody who offers weapons for a dwelling to acquire a federal license. Moreover, solely licensed sellers are permitted to promote brand-new firearms.

Nonetheless, NICS checks don’t characterize a one-to-one metric for gun gross sales. That’s true for a number of causes. As an illustration, neither federal regulation nor most states require non-public residents to conduct a NICS test after they promote a used gun out of their very own assortment. Additionally, twenty-eight states permit individuals with sure sorts of permits, like gun-carry permits that require a NICS test to acquire, to bypass extra NICS checks throughout gross sales.

Nevertheless, the uncooked NICS numbers the FBI publishes may be deceptive as a result of they embody a considerable variety of checks that aren’t related to a gun sale. That’s why NSSF, the trade’s commerce group, makes use of a proprietary system to estimate the variety of NICS checks which can be truly associated to gross sales.

“The adjusted NICS information had been derived by subtracting out NICS function code allow checks and allow rechecks utilized by states for CCW allow utility checks in addition to checks on energetic CCW allow databases,” the group stated in an announcement. “NSSF began subtracting allow rechecks in February 2016.”

NSSF reported that Texas, Florida, California, and Pennsylvania dominated gross sales checks for handguns and lengthy weapons. It discovered that Colorado was within the prime 5 for general gross sales checks, whereas Tennessee made it into the highest 5 for each handgun and lengthy gun checks.